Jake's Picks - MLB Monday July 31st (+2.8 units)

[JakeThompson]

Overs: 39-39
Unders: 43-70
Dogs: 91-99
Favs: 97-65

Overall Record and Units: 270-266 +2.8 Units
2 Unit Plays: 10-8

Florida +107
Pitchers: Johnson/Lieber

Lieber is not pitching well and Florida has hit him twice this year. Philly just lost Abreu which hurts. Johnsons is pitching well and doesn't give up a ton of homers; without homers, Philly's offense struggles. Florida should be a small favorite in this one.

Boston -1.5 +152
Boston/Cleveland Over 10.5 -124
Pitchers: Wells/Byrd

Cleveland hits well and Wells is making his first start back so he'll give up runs. Byrd has been horrible in three of his last four and Boston should kill him at home where they are excellent offensively. Cleveland's pen is good for 3-4 runs here so I'm looking at a 9-6 Boston win.

Baltimore +106
Pitchers: Loewen/Meche

Meche has only had moderate success against the Orioles and the O's are hitting very well lately. Loewen has been up and down but he's put some quality starts together in a row and Seattle doesn't hit lefties well. Loewen doesn't give up homers so Richie Sexson won't be able to tack a few on here.

Detroit -1.5 +100
Pitchers: Rogers/Fossum

Rogers isn't pitching well and that scares me a little but he dominated Tampa last time out and the Devil Rays aren't very good on offense. Fossum always gives up runs and with Detroit hitting so well, I'd expect them to hurt him early and often. Rays' bullpen is crap so the Tigers should tack on a few late as well.

Kansas City +180
Pitchers: Hernandez/Contreras

Lean on the over as well. Hernandez has pitched decently in two outings since coming off the DL and the White Sox haven't been hitting as well as they were earlier in the year. KC hits very well at home and Contreras did not have a great start when he went to KC earlier this year. Worth a shot at +180.

Angels -126
Pitchers: Santana/Haren

Haren has pitched poorly in both matchups against LAA this year and the Angels are finally hitting well. Santana has been a monster at home this season and dominated the A's on the road earlier as well.